King's Luck(SH:603369) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-30 04:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.54 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and a net profit of 3.41 billion RMB, up 8.8% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 5.10 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.2% increase, with a net profit of 1.64 billion RMB, up 7.3% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5% to 12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, focusing on maintaining a balance between profit growth and operational quality [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 74.9 billion RMB from Special A+ products and 33.5 billion RMB from Special A products, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 17% respectively. Sales volume increased by 27% and 26%, while ton prices decreased by 10% and 8%, leading to a decline in gross margins [3]. - For Q1 2025, revenue from Special A+ and Special A products was 31.7 billion RMB and 16.5 billion RMB, showing year-on-year growth of 7% and 17% respectively [3]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the company generated 105.5 billion RMB in revenue from domestic markets and 9.3 billion RMB from outside, with year-on-year growth of 13% and 27% respectively. Key regions like Nanjing and Huai'an showed steady growth [3]. - For Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 46.4 billion RMB, up 8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside was 4.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 19% increase [3]. Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 29.6%, with gross margin down by 3.6 percentage points [4]. - The company reported a contract liability balance of 540 million RMB at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 430 million RMB year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 12% and 17% reduction in net profit for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected revenue growth of 8.3% in 2025 and 8.5% in 2026 [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.90 RMB, 3.17 RMB, and 3.57 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.0, 14.6, and 13.0 [5].