山西汾酒：业绩稳健落地，强品牌势能驱动增长-20250430

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.52 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 6.65 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company aims for steady revenue growth, with a target of maintaining a growth rate of 8.1% for 2025 [5]. Revenue Structure Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from high-priced liquor and other liquor segments was 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 9% [3]. - For Q4 2024, high-priced liquor and other liquor segments generated revenues of 3.92 billion yuan and 0.70 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 15% and a decline of 59% respectively [3]. - The company expects continued growth from mid-tier products and stable performance from its flagship products in 2025 [3]. Regional Revenue Analysis - In 2024, the company generated 13.50 billion yuan from domestic sales and 22.37 billion yuan from external sales, with year-on-year growth of 12% and 14% respectively [3]. - For Q1 2025, domestic and external sales were 6.08 billion yuan and 10.40 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 9% and 7% respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0%, with a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points [4]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 40.2%, with a gross margin increase of 1.3 percentage points [4]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 60% in 2024 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 6% and 8% downward adjustment in net profit for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected revenues of 38.93 billion yuan and 42.13 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.83 yuan, 11.88 yuan, and 13.29 yuan, respectively [5].