KLM(SH:600686) Soochow Securities·2025-04-30 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinlong Automobile (600686) [1] Core Views - The integration of the three subsidiaries is complete, leading to an upward shift in the profit center [7] - The company is expected to benefit from strong growth in both domestic and international sales, with a projected revenue increase to 25 billion yuan in 2025 [7] - The management change is anticipated to enhance internal efficiency and accelerate profit release [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 19.4 billion yuan - 2024A: 22.966 billion yuan (YoY +18.38%) - 2025E: 24.987 billion yuan (YoY +8.80%) - 2026E: 26.757 billion yuan (YoY +7.09%) - 2027E: 28.497 billion yuan (YoY +6.50%) [1][8] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 751 million yuan - 2024A: 1.5774 billion yuan (YoY +110.05%) - 2025E: 4.4424 billion yuan (YoY +181.62%) - 2026E: 6.4494 billion yuan (YoY +45.18%) - 2027E: 8.2807 billion yuan (YoY +28.40%) [1][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.10 yuan - 2024A: 0.22 yuan - 2025E: 0.62 yuan - 2026E: 0.90 yuan - 2027E: 1.15 yuan [1][8] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2024A: 59.91 - 2025E: 21.27 - 2026E: 14.65 - 2027E: 11.41 [1][8] Market Data Summary - Closing Price: 12.54 yuan - Market Capitalization: 8,991.77 million yuan - Price-to-Book Ratio: 2.86 [5][6] Operational Highlights - The company achieved a sales volume of 50,000 vehicles in 2024, a 19% increase YoY, with an average selling price (ASP) of 460,000 yuan [7] - Export sales reached 23,000 vehicles in 2024, a 20% increase YoY, with 4,000 vehicles being new energy exports [7] Profitability Metrics - Gross Margin: - 2024: 10.2% (YoY +0.5 percentage points) - 2025 Q1: 11.3% [7] - Net Profit Margin: - 2024: 0.69% - 2025E: 1.78% [8] Future Outlook - The report projects continued revenue growth with expected revenues of 26.8 billion yuan in 2026 and 28.5 billion yuan in 2027, alongside significant profit increases [7]