1）天时 ：符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余年的出 海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业【走出去】。 投资要点 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？ 一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真 真切切反应到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背 后支撑因素： 2）地利 ：客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车已领先 海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 3）人和 ：国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲击+新能 源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已率先提价，且需 求本身得益【旅游复苏+公交车更新需求】有望重回2019年水平。 客车这轮盈利能创新高吗？我们认为并不是遥不可及。 1）国内没有价格战。2）寡头龙头格局。3）海外无论新能源还是油车净利率远好于国内（无 需投固定资产）。4）碳酸锂成本持续下行。 客车这轮市值空间怎 ...

摘要 2026Q1 乘用车行业量利双压，预计批发量同比-8%，新能源车微降， 出口同比+55%成唯一亮点。 成本端受铜、铝、碳酸锂涨价及人民币升值双重挤压，一季度为行业全 年量利低点，多数车企利润同比降幅>20%。 吉利汽车表现亮眼，Q1 利润预期>40 亿元，环比增 10%+，主因吉利 9X 高盈利及出口同比+140%驱动。 重卡行业出口强劲，1-2 月同比+30%，中国重汽 A 股 Q1 利润预增 60%至 5 亿元，非洲及东南亚市场翻倍增长。 智能化板块优于整车，华阳集团受益小米汽车放量及 HUD 等新业务， Q1 业绩预增 20%；金龙汽车出口翻倍，利润预达 1.5 亿元。 零部件板块分化，福耀、星宇等海外拓展领先者压力较小；金固股份受 益铝价上涨带来的钢轮替代效应，Q2 迎拐点。 两轮车大排量出口维持高增，春风动力 Q1 出口同比+60%，但受全地 形车关税影响，整体业绩预计同比持平。 汽车行业 2026 一季度业绩前瞻 20260322 Q&A 对于 2026 年的汽车行业，整体投资策略和主要推荐的主线是什么？ 2026 年汽车行业正处于技术创新与需求周期的切换阶段，板块内部的新闻主 线较为发散， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 23 年 月 日 汽车 周观点：油价上涨强化出海逻辑，重视整车配置机会 行情回顾：本周（3.16-3.22）SW 汽车板块整体-4.40%，板块排名 16/31， 上证指数-3.38%，深证成指-2.90%，沪深 300 指数-2.19%。 乘用车：周度数据大幅改善，油价上涨预计加速新能源出海。根据乘联会 数据，3 月第一周/第二周批发日均 3.1 万辆/5.8 万辆，零售日均 3.1 万辆 /4.5 万辆，随着假期结束及新车上市，终端数据环比大幅改善。此外受中 东形势影响，海外油价上涨，对新能源车需求有望提升，车企出海有望加 速。考虑包括电池、存储等成本影响，车企盈利水平及当前销售均处在年 内低点，预计随着新车上市及行业销售节奏回暖，叠加出海贡献，3-6 月 整车板块边际改善确定性强。 零部件：宇树 IPO 受理，GTC 大会超百款机器人亮相，国内外产业有望 共振。3 月，英伟达 GTC 大会现场展示超百款机器人，几乎包括所有主流 研发企业；宇树科技 IPO 获受理，材料显示 2025 年公司实现营收和利润 高增，并募资 42 亿元加码研 ...

2月，国内大中型新能源客车实现销量"双增"，前十排名发生较大变化。 根据中国客车统计信息网发布的数据显示，2026年2月，我国新能源客车（全文均指7米以上大中型新能源客车数据）共销售2212辆， 环比（2137辆）增长3.51%，同比（1891辆）增长16.98%。 经历1月短暂的"遇冷"，2月各新能源客车品牌马力全开，交出了一份不错的市场答卷。下面，我们一起来看看各家的具体表现。 | | | | | 2026年2月7米以上新能源客车市场销量情况 (单位: 辆) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 企业/总计 | 2月销量 | 月度份额 | 环比增幅 | 同比增幅 | 今年累计 | 累计份额 | 同期累计 | 累计增幅 | | | | 2212 | 100.00% | 3.51% | 16.98% | 4349 | 100.00% | 4551 | -4.44% | | 1 | 宇通客车 | 358 | 16.18% | 43.78% | 30.18% | 607 | 13.96% | ...

2026年2月份，我国客车市场同比下降15%，整体销量仅2.91万辆。作为客车市场中占比最大的细分市场，轻客市场毫无意外地同步出 现下滑。 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 2月销2.17万辆，同比下降23%，遭遇"2连降" 第一商用车网最新获悉，根据中汽协数据（企业开票数口径，非终端实销口径，下同），2026年2月份，我国客车市场（含底盘）销售 2.91万辆，环比下降17%，同比下降15%。其中，轻型客车销售2.17万辆，环比下降20%，同比下降23%，同比降幅较上月 （-12%）扩大11个百分点，连续两个月遭遇环比、同比双降。 2月份，轻型客车2.17万辆的销量在整个客车市场占到74.62%的比重，较上月（76.56%）小幅下降；2026年1-2月份，轻型客车占 到客车市场整体销量75.69%的比重，低于2025年全年占比（78.07%），较去年同期的82.34%则下滑了超6个百分点。 纵观近五年纵观近五年2月份轻型客车销量及增幅走势图可见，近五年2月份的轻客市场走出一个降-增-增-降-降的趋势，2026年2月 份轻客市场2.17万辆的销量在近五年里看处于低位水平（倒数第二）。根据第一商用车网的观察，最近五年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle sector in Q1 2026. It emphasizes the importance of selecting resilient domestic companies and those with strong export capabilities [32][33]. - For heavy trucks, the report anticipates a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3%. It recommends leading companies in the heavy truck sector [35]. - The bus sector is expected to see a growth in sales to 40,000 units in 2026, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies and the need for fleet renewal [36]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in total sales, with a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles, particularly in export markets [33]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall, and others [32][33]. - The report suggests prioritizing companies with proven execution capabilities in overseas markets, recommending BYD, Great Wall, and Chery for export [32]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report forecasts a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, a 3% increase year-on-year [35]. - Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and others [35]. Buses - The report indicates that the bus subsidy policy has exceeded expectations, with a projected sales increase to 40,000 units in 2026, a 40% year-on-year growth [36]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [36]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [33]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [33].

| 项目名称 | 本月数 | 去年同月 | 当月同比 | 本年累计 | 去年同期 | 累计同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 增减 | | 累计 | 增减 | | 客车生产量 | 2,647 | 2,941 | -10.00% | 7,319 | 6,821 | 7.30% | | 其中：大型客车 | 929 | 1,035 | -10.24% | 2,622 | 2,652 | -1.13% | | 中型客车 | 388 | 326 | 19.02% | 1,789 | 1,020 | 75.39% | | 轻型客车 | 1,330 | 1,580 | -15.82% | 2,908 | 3,149 | -7.65% | | 客车销售量 | 4,326 | 2,922 | 48.05% | 9,038 | 6,404 | 41.13% | | 其中：大型客车 | 1,592 | 1,377 | 15.61% | 3,167 | 2,449 | 29.32% | | 中型客车 | 956 | 257 | 271.98% | 2,23 ...

Core Viewpoint - The light commercial vehicle (LCV) market in January 2026 experienced a significant decline, with sales dropping to 26,981 units, marking a 39.31% decrease month-on-month and an 11.94% decrease year-on-year, indicating a poor start to the year [4][12][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the LCV market sales were 26,981 units, which is below the lowest sales figure of 28,000 units recorded in February 2025 [12][16]. - The month-on-month decline is attributed to the previous year's end-of-year sales push and consumer behavior of purchasing vehicles ahead of the new year, leading to a depletion of market demand at the start of 2026 [4][16]. - Year-on-year performance is also poor, as the January 2026 sales did not surpass the previous year's figures, reflecting a 11.94% decline [6][18]. Group 2: Company Rankings and Performance - The top 10 LCV manufacturers in January 2026 saw significant changes in rankings, with SAIC Maxus rising to first place, followed by JMC in second, and Changan in third [8][21]. - Four companies, including SAIC Maxus, JMC, Jianghuai, and Nanjing Iveco, showed growth against the trend, while six companies experienced declines [6][18]. - The overall market share of the top 10 companies reached 97.97%, with the top three companies alone accounting for 65.31% of the market, indicating increased market concentration [11][23].

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the new energy bus market in China, driven by government policies supporting the development of new energy vehicles [1] - Key players in the new energy bus industry include Yutong Bus, Zhongtong Bus, CRRC, Ankai Bus, Foton Motor, King Long, BYD, Dongfeng Motor, and Changan Automobile [1] Industry Overview - The new energy bus sector is a focal point for research and production within China's automotive industry, with numerous listed companies involved across various segments of the supply chain [1] - The report provides a comprehensive summary of listed companies in the new energy bus industry, detailing their revenue, profit, and business structure [1] Company Summaries - Yutong Bus (600066.SH), Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ), and CRRC (601766.SH) are identified as leading companies in the bus manufacturing sector, focusing on new energy commercial vehicles and core components [4] - Ankai Bus (000868.SZ) and Foton Motor (600166.SH) are also significant players, with a diversified product range that includes both traditional and new energy vehicles [4] Revenue Performance - The report includes detailed revenue figures for various companies, with notable performances such as: - BYD (002594.SH) reported a revenue of 566.26 billion [7] - Ningde Times (300750.SH) achieved a revenue of 2830.72 billion [6] - King Long (600686.SH) generated a revenue of 110.06 billion [11] Business Structure and Focus - Companies like Ankai Bus, Zhongtong Bus, and King Long have a high proportion of their business focused on new energy buses, while others like Foton Motor and Dongfeng Motor have a more diversified approach [9] - The majority of these companies have a global sales presence, indicating a trend towards international market expansion [9] Manufacturing and Technology - The report emphasizes the technological advancements in the industry, with companies focusing on electric drive systems, battery management, and energy efficiency [11] - Key technologies include high-energy batteries, electric control systems, and integrated vehicle designs, which are crucial for maintaining competitive advantages in the market [11] Future Outlook - The new energy bus industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with companies planning to enhance their international market presence and invest in smart technology innovations [12]

国家知识产权局信息显示，厦门金龙汽车新能源科技有限公司申请一项名为"一种基于实时动态参数的 高压配电系统电耗管理方法"的专利，公开号CN121562963A，申请日期为2025年10月。 专利摘要显示，本发明公开了一种基于实时动态参数的高压配电系统电耗管理方法，涉及电动汽车技术 领域，该方法核心在于通过多源数据融合与动态补偿算法，构建高压配电系统的电耗预测模型，电耗预 测模型的输入特征包括至少两个关键参数，输出标签为通过细化分项计算和损耗补偿所修正的整车总电 耗，因此具有预测精度高、预测泛化能力强等优点，为高压配电系统实现电耗的精细化动态管理提供了 准确、可靠的数据支撑。此外，该方法通过设定多个风险判断条件并结合高压附件分级调控方案实现潜 在能耗危机识别和能量分配管理，确保安全功能优先响应，有效避免因能耗过载引发的续航骤降问题， 显著提升风险调控的安全性与可靠性。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 天眼查资料显示，厦门金龙汽车新能源科技有限公司，成立于2016年，位于厦门市，是一家以从事研究 和试验发展为主 ...