证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 23 年 月 日 汽车 周观点：油价上涨强化出海逻辑，重视整车配置机会 行情回顾：本周（3.16-3.22）SW 汽车板块整体-4.40%，板块排名 16/31， 上证指数-3.38%，深证成指-2.90%，沪深 300 指数-2.19%。 乘用车：周度数据大幅改善，油价上涨预计加速新能源出海。根据乘联会 数据，3 月第一周/第二周批发日均 3.1 万辆/5.8 万辆，零售日均 3.1 万辆 /4.5 万辆，随着假期结束及新车上市，终端数据环比大幅改善。此外受中 东形势影响，海外油价上涨，对新能源车需求有望提升，车企出海有望加 速。考虑包括电池、存储等成本影响，车企盈利水平及当前销售均处在年 内低点，预计随着新车上市及行业销售节奏回暖，叠加出海贡献，3-6 月 整车板块边际改善确定性强。 零部件：宇树 IPO 受理，GTC 大会超百款机器人亮相，国内外产业有望 共振。3 月，英伟达 GTC 大会现场展示超百款机器人，几乎包括所有主流 研发企业；宇树科技 IPO 获受理，材料显示 2025 年公司实现营收和利润 高增，并募资 42 亿元加码研 ...

2月，国内大中型新能源客车实现销量"双增"，前十排名发生较大变化。 根据中国客车统计信息网发布的数据显示，2026年2月，我国新能源客车（全文均指7米以上大中型新能源客车数据）共销售2212辆， 环比（2137辆）增长3.51%，同比（1891辆）增长16.98%。 经历1月短暂的"遇冷"，2月各新能源客车品牌马力全开，交出了一份不错的市场答卷。下面，我们一起来看看各家的具体表现。 | | | | | 2026年2月7米以上新能源客车市场销量情况 (单位: 辆) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 企业/总计 | 2月销量 | 月度份额 | 环比增幅 | 同比增幅 | 今年累计 | 累计份额 | 同期累计 | 累计增幅 | | | | 2212 | 100.00% | 3.51% | 16.98% | 4349 | 100.00% | 4551 | -4.44% | | 1 | 宇通客车 | 358 | 16.18% | 43.78% | 30.18% | 607 | 13.96% | ...

2026年2月份，我国客车市场同比下降15%，整体销量仅2.91万辆。作为客车市场中占比最大的细分市场，轻客市场毫无意外地同步出 现下滑。 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 2月销2.17万辆，同比下降23%，遭遇"2连降" 第一商用车网最新获悉，根据中汽协数据（企业开票数口径，非终端实销口径，下同），2026年2月份，我国客车市场（含底盘）销售 2.91万辆，环比下降17%，同比下降15%。其中，轻型客车销售2.17万辆，环比下降20%，同比下降23%，同比降幅较上月 （-12%）扩大11个百分点，连续两个月遭遇环比、同比双降。 2月份，轻型客车2.17万辆的销量在整个客车市场占到74.62%的比重，较上月（76.56%）小幅下降；2026年1-2月份，轻型客车占 到客车市场整体销量75.69%的比重，低于2025年全年占比（78.07%），较去年同期的82.34%则下滑了超6个百分点。 纵观近五年纵观近五年2月份轻型客车销量及增幅走势图可见，近五年2月份的轻客市场走出一个降-增-增-降-降的趋势，2026年2月 份轻客市场2.17万辆的销量在近五年里看处于低位水平（倒数第二）。根据第一商用车网的观察，最近五年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle sector in Q1 2026. It emphasizes the importance of selecting resilient domestic companies and those with strong export capabilities [32][33]. - For heavy trucks, the report anticipates a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3%. It recommends leading companies in the heavy truck sector [35]. - The bus sector is expected to see a growth in sales to 40,000 units in 2026, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies and the need for fleet renewal [36]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in total sales, with a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles, particularly in export markets [33]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall, and others [32][33]. - The report suggests prioritizing companies with proven execution capabilities in overseas markets, recommending BYD, Great Wall, and Chery for export [32]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report forecasts a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, a 3% increase year-on-year [35]. - Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and others [35]. Buses - The report indicates that the bus subsidy policy has exceeded expectations, with a projected sales increase to 40,000 units in 2026, a 40% year-on-year growth [36]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [36]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [33]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [33].

| 项目名称 | 本月数 | 去年同月 | 当月同比 | 本年累计 | 去年同期 | 累计同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 增减 | | 累计 | 增减 | | 客车生产量 | 2,647 | 2,941 | -10.00% | 7,319 | 6,821 | 7.30% | | 其中：大型客车 | 929 | 1,035 | -10.24% | 2,622 | 2,652 | -1.13% | | 中型客车 | 388 | 326 | 19.02% | 1,789 | 1,020 | 75.39% | | 轻型客车 | 1,330 | 1,580 | -15.82% | 2,908 | 3,149 | -7.65% | | 客车销售量 | 4,326 | 2,922 | 48.05% | 9,038 | 6,404 | 41.13% | | 其中：大型客车 | 1,592 | 1,377 | 15.61% | 3,167 | 2,449 | 29.32% | | 中型客车 | 956 | 257 | 271.98% | 2,23 ...

Core Viewpoint - The light commercial vehicle (LCV) market in January 2026 experienced a significant decline, with sales dropping to 26,981 units, marking a 39.31% decrease month-on-month and an 11.94% decrease year-on-year, indicating a poor start to the year [4][12][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the LCV market sales were 26,981 units, which is below the lowest sales figure of 28,000 units recorded in February 2025 [12][16]. - The month-on-month decline is attributed to the previous year's end-of-year sales push and consumer behavior of purchasing vehicles ahead of the new year, leading to a depletion of market demand at the start of 2026 [4][16]. - Year-on-year performance is also poor, as the January 2026 sales did not surpass the previous year's figures, reflecting a 11.94% decline [6][18]. Group 2: Company Rankings and Performance - The top 10 LCV manufacturers in January 2026 saw significant changes in rankings, with SAIC Maxus rising to first place, followed by JMC in second, and Changan in third [8][21]. - Four companies, including SAIC Maxus, JMC, Jianghuai, and Nanjing Iveco, showed growth against the trend, while six companies experienced declines [6][18]. - The overall market share of the top 10 companies reached 97.97%, with the top three companies alone accounting for 65.31% of the market, indicating increased market concentration [11][23].

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the new energy bus market in China, driven by government policies supporting the development of new energy vehicles [1] - Key players in the new energy bus industry include Yutong Bus, Zhongtong Bus, CRRC, Ankai Bus, Foton Motor, King Long, BYD, Dongfeng Motor, and Changan Automobile [1] Industry Overview - The new energy bus sector is a focal point for research and production within China's automotive industry, with numerous listed companies involved across various segments of the supply chain [1] - The report provides a comprehensive summary of listed companies in the new energy bus industry, detailing their revenue, profit, and business structure [1] Company Summaries - Yutong Bus (600066.SH), Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ), and CRRC (601766.SH) are identified as leading companies in the bus manufacturing sector, focusing on new energy commercial vehicles and core components [4] - Ankai Bus (000868.SZ) and Foton Motor (600166.SH) are also significant players, with a diversified product range that includes both traditional and new energy vehicles [4] Revenue Performance - The report includes detailed revenue figures for various companies, with notable performances such as: - BYD (002594.SH) reported a revenue of 566.26 billion [7] - Ningde Times (300750.SH) achieved a revenue of 2830.72 billion [6] - King Long (600686.SH) generated a revenue of 110.06 billion [11] Business Structure and Focus - Companies like Ankai Bus, Zhongtong Bus, and King Long have a high proportion of their business focused on new energy buses, while others like Foton Motor and Dongfeng Motor have a more diversified approach [9] - The majority of these companies have a global sales presence, indicating a trend towards international market expansion [9] Manufacturing and Technology - The report emphasizes the technological advancements in the industry, with companies focusing on electric drive systems, battery management, and energy efficiency [11] - Key technologies include high-energy batteries, electric control systems, and integrated vehicle designs, which are crucial for maintaining competitive advantages in the market [11] Future Outlook - The new energy bus industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with companies planning to enhance their international market presence and invest in smart technology innovations [12]

国家知识产权局信息显示，厦门金龙汽车新能源科技有限公司申请一项名为"一种基于实时动态参数的 高压配电系统电耗管理方法"的专利，公开号CN121562963A，申请日期为2025年10月。 专利摘要显示，本发明公开了一种基于实时动态参数的高压配电系统电耗管理方法，涉及电动汽车技术 领域，该方法核心在于通过多源数据融合与动态补偿算法，构建高压配电系统的电耗预测模型，电耗预 测模型的输入特征包括至少两个关键参数，输出标签为通过细化分项计算和损耗补偿所修正的整车总电 耗，因此具有预测精度高、预测泛化能力强等优点，为高压配电系统实现电耗的精细化动态管理提供了 准确、可靠的数据支撑。此外，该方法通过设定多个风险判断条件并结合高压附件分级调控方案实现潜 在能耗危机识别和能量分配管理，确保安全功能优先响应，有效避免因能耗过载引发的续航骤降问题， 显著提升风险调控的安全性与可靠性。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 天眼查资料显示，厦门金龙汽车新能源科技有限公司，成立于2016年，位于厦门市，是一家以从事研究 和试验发展为主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commercial vehicle industry is entering a new growth cycle driven by domestic demand recovery and strong export performance, with significant contributions from the "old-for-new" policy and the expansion of new energy vehicles [9][10]. Group 1: Heavy Truck Market Overview - In 2025, the wholesale sales of heavy trucks are projected to reach 1.144 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [2][12]. - Domestic sales are expected to be 799,000 units, up 32.7% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [2][14]. - Exports are forecasted to be 341,000 units, a 17.4% increase year-on-year, with Southeast Asia and the Middle East as key growth drivers [2][28]. Group 2: Heavy Truck Outlook for 2026 - The heavy truck industry has exited a three-year downturn and is entering a new upward cycle, with the "old-for-new" policy likely to continue supporting domestic demand [3][67]. - The share of diesel heavy trucks is declining, while natural gas and new energy heavy trucks are expected to see stable growth [3][67]. - Exports to non-Russian regions are anticipated to remain strong, with Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa becoming core markets [3][67]. Group 3: Bus Market Overview - The bus industry is entering a new cycle characterized by stable domestic demand recovery and high export growth, with wholesale sales of buses projected at 122,000 units in 2025, up 5.1% year-on-year [4][10]. - Domestic sales of buses are expected to decline by 10.6% to 65,000 units, while exports are projected to grow by 34.6% to 59,000 units [4][10]. - New energy buses are expected to see significant export growth, with 15,000 units projected for 2025, a 33.7% increase year-on-year [4][10]. Group 4: Bus Outlook for 2026 - Domestic demand for buses is expected to continue growing steadily, with wholesale sales projected at 146,000 units, a 20.0% increase year-on-year [5][10]. - Exports are anticipated to reach 78,000 units, up 32.0% year-on-year, with Europe and Latin America becoming key markets [5][10]. - The penetration of new energy buses in overseas markets is expected to accelerate, with exports projected at 20,000 units, a 34.0% increase year-on-year [5][10]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - For heavy trucks, the domestic market is expected to achieve high growth in 2025, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, with leading companies like Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation recommended for their comprehensive advantages [6][10]. - In the bus sector, companies with strong export capabilities and superior products, such as Yutong Bus and King Long, are recommended, with Zhongtong Bus suggested for further attention [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, China's bus market experienced a year-on-year decline of 6%, with total sales reaching 35,200 units. The light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment, which is the largest in the bus market, ended its nine-month growth streak, with sales of 27,000 units, marking a year-on-year decrease of 12% [2][4][14]. Market Performance - The overall bus market sales in January 2026 were 35,200 units, reflecting a 45% month-on-month decline and a 6% year-on-year decrease. The light commercial vehicle sales accounted for 76.56% of the total bus market, slightly below the 2025 annual share of 78.07% and down nearly 5 percentage points from the previous year's 81.49% [2][5]. - The January 2026 sales of 27,000 units for light commercial vehicles were the third highest in the past five years, but still represented a significant drop from the previous year's peak of over 30,000 units [5][14]. Company Rankings and Market Shares - In January 2026, the top ten companies in the light commercial vehicle market collectively held a market share of 98.0%. The leading companies included SAIC Maxus with 26.0% and Jiangling Motors with 24.2%, both exceeding 20% market share [9][12]. - Among the top ten companies, five experienced sales growth while five saw declines. Notably, SAIC Maxus and Jiangling Motors reported year-on-year increases of 22% and 28%, respectively, while Changan Motors faced a significant decline of 59% [8][12]. Future Outlook - The light commercial vehicle market in January 2026 did not achieve a "good start," and the outlook for February remains uncertain regarding whether the market will regain growth or continue to decline [14].