未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 2026年以旧换新政策落地，我们认为：1）客车政策略超预期，市场之前对于客车补贴力度做 了和乘用车一样会退坡的预期，实际是延续的；2）25年公交略低预期：25年公交车销量2.9万 辆，同比-6%（24年公交车销量3万辆，同比+44%），两年增长下来距离合理更换中枢仍有差 距（公交60万保有量，8-10年更换周期，销量中枢6万台）；3）26年公交可以更乐观：考虑到 八年以上待更新公交数量（10万台以上）以及销量中枢，我们认为26年公交在补贴下仍保持增 长，我们保守预计26年公交4万台同比+40%。 推荐头部车企，重点推荐宇通客车/金龙汽车， 建议关注中通客车。 摩托车观点更新： 大排量+出口持续高景气，看好龙头车企。我们预测2026年行业总销量1938万辆，同比+14%， 其中大排量126万辆，同比+31%。大排量：1）内销：25H2大排量内销转弱，我们预计随26年 国内新品供给推出，内销有望小幅增长，预计26年内销43万，同比+5%；2）出口：欧洲+拉美 中国品牌份额提升空间充足，我们预计26年出口83万，同比+50%。 看好大排量+出口持续增 长，优选龙头车企。推荐春风动力+隆 ...

一场"少壮派"掌门人崛起的势头，正在商用车行业上演。 2026年初，一则人事变动在商用车行业掀起波澜——1978年出生的刘义接替袁宏明，成为陕汽控股新任董事长。在传统观念中，需 要"德高望重"才能担当领导人的头部商用车企业，让这位不到48岁的技术派彻底打破。加上，北汽福田最新任命的总经理鹿政华 （1977年出生），这种印象被进一步加深。目前来看，在国内重卡、客车等核心商用车赛道，70后管理者几乎已全面接棒，甚至很大 部分是"75后"，他们普遍拥有深厚的技术背景和丰富的一线管理经验。在行业变革关键期，他们接棒后将面临哪些挑战，又能否打破行 业困局？ 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 | 企业名称 | 姓名 | 出生年月 | 职务 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汽集团 | 李胜 | 1976年5月 | 一汽解放董事长 | | | 于长信 | 1972 年 | 一汽解放总经理 | | | 张小帆 | 1970年3月 | 一汽集团副总经理 | | 中国重汽 | 刘正涛 | 1970年10月 | 中国重汽集团党委书记、 | | | | | 节事长 | | 陕汽控股 | 刘义 | 1978年12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to recreate a market equivalent to China within 3-5 years [4][12]. Group 1: Driving Factors for the Bus Industry - **Timing**: Aligns with the national strategy of "China's Special Valuation," with buses being key practitioners of the "Belt and Road" initiative, leveraging over a decade of international experience [4][12]. - **Geographical Advantage**: The technology and products of Chinese buses are at a world-class level, leading in new energy bus products and competitive in traditional buses regarding cost-effectiveness and service [4][12]. - **Human Factors**: The end of the domestic price war is expected to resonate positively, with demand recovering due to tourism and public transport renewal needs, potentially returning to 2019 levels [4][12]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - The current lack of price wars domestically, the oligopolistic market structure, and higher profit margins in overseas markets for both new energy and traditional buses suggest that achieving new profitability highs is feasible [5][13]. Group 3: Market Valuation Potential - The short-term goal is to challenge the market valuation peak from the last industry boom (2015-2017), while the long-term goal is to establish a new ceiling, marking the true emergence of a world-class bus leader [6][14]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - **Yutong Bus**: Identified as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.94 billion, 5.92 billion, and 7.03 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 20%, and 19% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7][15]. - **King Long Automobile**: Recognized as the "fastest improving student," with significant profit elasticity expected, projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 182%, 45%, and 28% respectively, also maintaining a "buy" rating [8][15]. Group 5: Industry Data Summary - In February 2026, the overall production of the bus industry in China was 28,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month declines of 23.49% and 26.00% respectively [19][20]. - The wholesale volume for February 2026 was 29,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month declines of 14.92% and 17.50% respectively [19][20]. - The terminal sales volume for buses in February 2026 was 19,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month declines of 43.27% and 38.21% respectively [23].

近日，杭州市公共交通集团有限公司7辆自动驾驶公交车采购项目中标结果公告发布。中标单位为厦门金龙联合汽车工业有限公司，投 标报价为1334.55万元。 正文如下 一、招标人名称： 杭州市公共交通集团有限公司 二、项目名称： 杭州市公共交通集团有限公司7辆自动驾驶公交车采购项目 三、项目编号： GJ-1HZB2602001 四、采购方式： 公开招标 五、中标结果： 中标单位：厦门金龙联合汽车工业有限公司 投标报价：13345500元 六、联系方式： 招 标 人：杭州市公共交通集团有限公司 地 址：杭州市上城区婺江路289号 联 系 人：来工 电 话：0571-56980662 电子邮件：gjjc1@hzbus.com.cn 招标代理：浙江信达咨询监理有限公司 电子邮件：hzxd05@126.com 监管单位：杭州市公共交通集团有限公司纪检监察室 地 址：杭州市上城区婺江路289号 联 系 人：孙先生 电 话：0571-85193874 地 址：杭州市拱墅区德胜路289号松泰文创园602室 联 系 人：姜宇 电 话：0571-85118292 ● 江铃汽车发生多项重要人事变动！| 头条 ● 最高限价1683万元！又 ...

Summary of Automotive Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive industry is facing dual pressure on volume and profit in Q1 2026, with wholesale volume expected to decline by approximately 8% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales are projected to slightly decrease. Exports are the only bright spot, with a year-on-year increase of 55% [1][2][3]. Key Points Performance Expectations - **Overall Industry Performance**: Q1 2026 is anticipated to be the low point for volume and profit in the passenger car sector, with most automakers expected to see profit declines exceeding 20% year-on-year due to rising costs from copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, and the appreciation of the RMB [1][2][3]. - **Geely Auto**: Expected to report profits exceeding 4 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 10%, driven by the high profitability of the Geely 9X model and a year-on-year export growth of 140% [1][4]. - **Heavy Truck Sector**: Strong export performance with a year-on-year increase of 30% in January-February 2026. China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation (CNHTC) is expected to see a profit increase of 60% to 500 million yuan [1][2][3]. Segment Performance - **Intelligent Vehicle Sector**: Outperforming the overall vehicle sector, with Huayang Group expected to see a nearly 20% year-on-year growth, benefiting from Xiaomi's automotive sales and new product lines [1][7]. - **Parts Sector**: Mixed performance with leading companies like Fuyao Glass and Xingyu maintaining lower pressure due to strong overseas expansion. Companies like Kingood are expected to benefit from the rising aluminum prices [1][6]. Sales and Profitability - **Sales Disparities**: Despite overall industry decline, companies like NIO and Seres are expected to show significant sales growth due to new model launches, while BYD and XPeng are facing larger declines [2][3][4]. - **Profit Expectations**: Most passenger car companies are expected to see a year-on-year profit decline of over 20%. Geely is projected to stand out with a profit of over 4 billion yuan [4][5]. Market Trends - **Two-Wheeler Sector**: The sector continues to show strong growth in large-displacement exports, with Chuanfeng Power's exports expected to increase by 60% year-on-year, although overall performance is expected to remain flat due to tariff impacts [1][10]. Additional Insights - **Investment Strategy**: The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on performance and valuation, with recommendations in areas such as AIGC-enabled "power shortage," L4-level intelligence, and robotics. Key companies recommended include Weichai Power, Xpeng Motors, and Top Group [2]. - **Challenges**: The industry faces challenges from rising raw material costs and currency fluctuations, which are expected to negatively impact profitability in Q1 2026 [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and performance expectations for the automotive industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both opportunities and challenges within various segments.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Views - The automotive sector is experiencing a significant improvement in weekly data, with wholesale daily averages increasing to 31,000 vehicles in the first week of March and 58,000 vehicles in the second week, alongside retail daily averages of 31,000 and 45,000 vehicles respectively. This improvement is attributed to the end of the holiday season and new vehicle launches. The rise in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is expected to boost demand for new energy vehicles, accelerating the overseas expansion of automotive companies. The profitability of car manufacturers is currently at a low point, but is expected to improve from March to June as new vehicles are launched and sales recover [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Weekly Dynamics - The report highlights that new energy vehicle companies such as Xiaopeng, Li Auto, and others have achieved significant year-on-year sales growth, with Xiaopeng and Li Auto reaching profitability in Q4 2025. The overall sales growth for these companies is reported at 126% for Xiaopeng and 103% for Li Auto [10][12] Weekly Market Performance - The automotive sector saw an overall decline of 4.40% in the week from March 16 to March 22, ranking 16th out of 31 sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.90% and 2.19% respectively. Among sub-sectors, passenger vehicles showed a slight increase of 0.78%, while other segments like automotive services and parts experienced declines of 5.53% and 6.20% respectively [13][20] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several companies across different segments: 1. Passenger Vehicles: Jianghuai Automobile, Geely Automobile, BYD, Xiaopeng Motors, Tesla 2. Commercial Vehicles: Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Yutong Bus, King Long Automobile 3. Liquid Cooling: Yinlun Holdings, Feilong Holdings, Ruikeda 4. Robotics: Zhejiang Rongtai, Laling Holdings, Deka Motor Holdings, Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Xinquan, Shuanghuan Transmission, Hengshuai 5. Autonomous Driving: Horizon Robotics, Hesai Technology, Suteng Juchuang, Pony.ai, Nexperia, Coboda, Jingwei Hirun, Borsali 6. Commercial Aviation: Chaojie Holdings, Haoneng Holdings, Jingwei Hirun [3]

Core Viewpoint - In February 2026, the domestic market for large and medium-sized new energy buses (over 7 meters) experienced a sales increase, with a total of 2,212 units sold, marking a 3.51% month-on-month growth and a 16.98% year-on-year growth. The rankings among the top ten manufacturers saw significant changes, with several companies showing strong performance [1][3]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - The total sales of new energy buses in February reached 2,212 units, with a market share of 100%. This represents a month-on-month increase of 3.51% and a year-on-year increase of 16.98%. Cumulatively, 4,349 units have been sold in the first two months of 2026, reflecting a decline of 4.44% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. Top Ten Manufacturers - Yutong Bus ranked first with sales of 358 units, achieving a market share of 16.18%, and showing a month-on-month growth of 43.78% and a year-on-year growth of 30.18% [2][3]. - BYD followed closely with 334 units sold, holding a market share of 15.10%, but experienced a month-on-month decline of 24.43% and a year-on-year decline of 26.27% [2][3]. - Xiamen Golden Dragon secured the third position with 275 units sold, a month-on-month increase of 5.77% and a year-on-year increase of 17.52%, resulting in a market share of 12.43% [2][3]. Notable Performances - Geely's sales surged to 220 units, with a remarkable month-on-month growth of 292.86% and a year-on-year growth of 323.08%, marking a significant recovery [5]. - Chery Wanda achieved sales of 156 units, with a month-on-month increase of 113.70% and an extraordinary year-on-year growth of 7,700% [5]. - Other notable performers include Ankai Bus with 134 units sold and a year-on-year growth of 152.83%, and Nanjing Golden Dragon Chuangwei with 117 units sold, showing a month-on-month increase of 333.33% and a year-on-year increase of 875% [5][16]. Market Segmentation - In the bus segment, 1,891 units were sold, accounting for 85.49% of the total market share, with a month-on-month increase of 7.69% and a year-on-year increase of 46.02% [10][12]. - The seat bus segment saw sales of 319 units, but experienced a month-on-month decline of 15.61% and a year-on-year decline of 39.12% [17][18]. Cumulative Sales Insights - Cumulatively, in the first two months of 2026, 3,647 new energy buses were sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.33%. Notably, Ankai Bus, Nanjing Golden Dragon Chuangwei, and Chery Wanda led the cumulative growth with increases of 1,240.91%, 860.00%, and 209.46%, respectively [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bus market experienced a significant decline in February 2026, with total sales dropping by 15% year-on-year to 29,100 units, and the light bus segment saw a 23% decrease in sales, marking a continuous decline for two consecutive months [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - In February 2026, the light bus market sold 21,700 units, accounting for 74.62% of the total bus market, a slight decrease from 76.56% in the previous month [3][11]. - The cumulative sales for the light bus market in January-February 2026 reached 48,700 units, representing an 18% year-on-year decline, with a notable increase in the decline rate compared to January [5][13]. - The light bus market's sales trend over the past five years shows a pattern of decline, with February 2026 sales being among the lowest in this period [5][6]. Group 2: Company Performance - In February 2026, the top ten companies in the light bus market accounted for 97.1% of the total market share, with SAIC Maxus, Changan, and Jiangling each holding over 20% market share [11][15]. - SAIC Maxus led the market with sales of 5,287 units and a market share of 24.4%, while Changan and Jiangling followed with shares of 22.3% and 21.3%, respectively [7][15]. - Several companies, including Xiamen Golden Dragon and Dongfeng, reported significant year-on-year sales growth, while others like Changan and Nanjing Iveco faced substantial declines [7][11][17]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The light bus market is anticipated to enter a traditional sales peak in March 2026, raising questions about whether it will recover or continue its downward trend [19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle sector in Q1 2026. It emphasizes the importance of selecting resilient domestic companies and those with strong export capabilities [32][33]. - For heavy trucks, the report anticipates a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3%. It recommends leading companies in the heavy truck sector [35]. - The bus sector is expected to see a growth in sales to 40,000 units in 2026, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies and the need for fleet renewal [36]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in total sales, with a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles, particularly in export markets [33]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall, and others [32][33]. - The report suggests prioritizing companies with proven execution capabilities in overseas markets, recommending BYD, Great Wall, and Chery for export [32]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report forecasts a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, a 3% increase year-on-year [35]. - Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and others [35]. Buses - The report indicates that the bus subsidy policy has exceeded expectations, with a projected sales increase to 40,000 units in 2026, a 40% year-on-year growth [36]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [36]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [33]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [33].

| 项目名称 | 本月数 | 去年同月 | 当月同比 | 本年累计 | 去年同期 | 累计同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 增减 | | 累计 | 增减 | | 客车生产量 | 2,647 | 2,941 | -10.00% | 7,319 | 6,821 | 7.30% | | 其中：大型客车 | 929 | 1,035 | -10.24% | 2,622 | 2,652 | -1.13% | | 中型客车 | 388 | 326 | 19.02% | 1,789 | 1,020 | 75.39% | | 轻型客车 | 1,330 | 1,580 | -15.82% | 2,908 | 3,149 | -7.65% | | 客车销售量 | 4,326 | 2,922 | 48.05% | 9,038 | 6,404 | 41.13% | | 其中：大型客车 | 1,592 | 1,377 | 15.61% | 3,167 | 2,449 | 29.32% | | 中型客车 | 956 | 257 | 271.98% | 2,23 ...