中钨高新：矿山资产维稳业绩，钨价上行有望受益量价齐升-20250430

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from rising tungsten prices and increased production capacity, leading to a potential increase in both volume and price [3][4]. - The injection of mining assets, particularly the acquisition of the Shizhu Garden tungsten mine, is crucial for stabilizing the company's performance amid fluctuating market conditions [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 14.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with a net profit of 939.45 million yuan, reflecting a 17.47% increase [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, a 3.52% increase year-on-year, but a 24.86% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Market Position - The company aims to produce over 14,000 tons of hard alloy in 2024, maintaining its position as the global leader in this sector [2]. - The Shizhu Garden tungsten mine is expected to contribute significantly to the company's profits, with a projected net profit of 705 million yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 70% of the total net profit [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening supply of tungsten is anticipated to drive prices higher, supported by a reduction in mining quotas and increasing domestic and international demand [3]. - The company is investing 1.8 billion yuan in upgrading the Shizhu Garden mine, which is expected to increase production capacity by approximately 59% by 2030 [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 16.40 billion yuan, 17.98 billion yuan, and 19.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 994.73 million yuan, 1.23 billion yuan, and 1.31 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.88, 17.73, and 16.57 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5].