CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE-B(SZ:000625) Guoyuan Securities·2025-04-30 05:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [3][9]. Core Views - The company has achieved expected performance in its first quarter of 2025, with revenue of 34.161 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.73%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.353 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.81% [1]. - The company is advancing its electric and intelligent vehicle strategies, with significant growth in overseas sales and partnerships with key industry players [2]. - The financial forecasts predict revenues of 188.517 billion yuan, 211.403 billion yuan, and 231.613 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 7.777 billion yuan, 9.913 billion yuan, and 11.792 billion yuan for the same years [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 34.161 billion yuan, down 7.73% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.353 billion yuan, up 16.81% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 783 million yuan, a significant increase of 601.31% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 159.733 billion yuan, a 5.58% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decrease of 35.37% to 7.321 billion yuan [1]. Electric and Intelligent Vehicle Strategy - The company is accelerating its "Shangri-La" plan in the electric vehicle sector, with a projected sales volume of 674,900 new energy passenger vehicles in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.56% [2]. - The "Beidou Tianshu" plan for intelligent vehicles is also being upgraded, with strategic collaborations with Huawei across various technological domains [2]. Global Expansion - The "Haina Baichuan" plan is driving significant growth in overseas vehicle sales, with 536,200 units sold abroad in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.59% [2]. - The company is establishing localized operations in regions like the Middle East and Africa and is set to launch its first overseas new energy vehicle manufacturing base in Thailand in May 2025, with an annual capacity of 100,000 units [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 188.517 billion yuan for 2025, with net profits expected to reach 7.777 billion yuan, translating to earnings per share of 0.78 yuan [3][5]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.40, 12.08, and 10.16 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][5].