山西汾酒（600809）：业绩稳健落地，强品牌势能驱动增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion RMB, up 17.3% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion RMB, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.65 billion RMB, up 6.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its product mix and expanding its market presence through strong brand recognition [4]. Revenue Analysis - In terms of product revenue for 2024, high-end liquor and other liquor segments generated 26.53 billion RMB and 9.34 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 9%. Sales volume increased by 13% and 5%, while average prices rose by 1% and 4%, with gross margins improving by 0.4 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points [3]. - Regionally, the company achieved 13.50 billion RMB in revenue from domestic sales and 22.37 billion RMB from external sales in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12% and 14%, respectively. The sales volume decreased by 1% domestically but increased by 11% externally, with price increases contributing to revenue growth [3]. Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0%, with gross margin up by 0.9 percentage points. For Q1 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 40.2%, while gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points [4]. - The company targets a revenue growth of 8.1% in 2025, with net profit growth of 7.9%, projecting net profits of 13.21 billion RMB for 2025 [5]. Valuation - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 10.83 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.7, 17.1, and 15.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].