CAERI(601965) China Post Securities·2025-04-30 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46.97 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.08 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.7% and 8.65% respectively. For Q1 2025, revenue was 8.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and 6.3% respectively [5][6]. - The automotive technology service segment continues to grow rapidly, with revenues of 41.25 billion yuan in 2024 and 7.94 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 21.4% and 11.5% respectively. This growth is driven by the large-scale implementation of intelligent connected vehicle technologies and strengthened industry regulations [6]. - The company has successfully integrated its certification and inspection services, with significant revenue growth from related party transactions, indicating potential for further expansion in this area [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 19.12 yuan - Total market capitalization: 192 billion yuan - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.08 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.8 [4][9]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 44.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of automotive service business [7]. - The total expense ratio decreased to 18.3%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved operational efficiency [7]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 55.07 billion yuan, 65.16 billion yuan, and 77.63 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 10.79 billion yuan, 12.86 billion yuan, and 15.26 billion yuan [9][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from synergies with its controlling shareholder, enhancing its market share in the vehicle certification and inspection sector [8].