LFX(SH:600612) Soochow Securities·2025-04-30 05:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.793 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 17.52 billion yuan, a decline of 31.64%, and a net profit of 613 million yuan, down 23.55% year-on-year, primarily due to the sustained rise in gold prices affecting gold jewelry consumption [7] - The gross margin slightly increased, indicating an improvement in profitability. The gross margin for 2024 was 8.93%, up 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, with specific categories like jewelry, gold, and crafts showing respective increases in gross margin of 0.32, 0.92, and 3.06 percentage points [7] - The company is experiencing pressure on core categories, but there is growth in overseas sales. In 2024, jewelry revenue was 46.908 billion yuan (down 19.31%), while overseas sales revenue reached 5.76 billion yuan, an increase of 12.83% [7] - The company is actively expanding its market presence despite lower-than-expected demand for gold jewelry. As of the end of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 5,541 marketing outlets, including 188 direct stores [7] - The company anticipates a potential turning point in performance in the second half of 2025 due to a low base effect. The brand is characterized by strong cash flow and high barriers to entry, making its current valuation attractive [7] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is 56.793 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 20.50% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 3.73 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.06 based on the latest diluted shares [1][8] - The company’s net profit for 2025 is revised down to 1.643 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.73%, with a projected P/E ratio of 15.50 [1][8]