百润股份：预调酒费投提效，期待威士忌催化-20250430

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 660 million yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The pre-mixed liquor segment continues to face pressure due to high base effects and weak demand, while the flavoring business showed stable performance. The sales volume of pre-mixed liquor decreased by 8.8% to 32.38 million boxes in 2024, with an average price increase of 1.8% to 82.7 yuan per box [1][2] - The company expects improved performance in the pre-mixed liquor segment starting from Q2 2025, as the base effect diminishes. The introduction of new whiskey products is anticipated to drive revenue growth [3] Financial Summary - The company's gross margin increased by 3.0 percentage points to 69.7% in 2024, primarily due to channel and product structure optimization. The sales expense ratio rose by 2.9 percentage points to 24.6%, with advertising expenses increasing by 34% [2] - For 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 860 million, 1.00 billion, and 1.12 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 16.3%, and 11.7% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 32, 28, and 25 times for the respective years [3][5]