TKGF(SH:601233) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-30 05:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a slight year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year and down 23.11% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 611 million yuan, up 5.36% year-on-year and up 213.00% quarter-on-quarter. The performance is generally in line with expectations [5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.54 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 4.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.78 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 10.1, 7.0, and 6.0 respectively [5][6] - The report highlights the expectation of gradual recovery in long filament profitability due to steady demand growth and optimized supply structure, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5][6] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's long filament production and sales volumes were 3.29 million tons and 2.50 million tons respectively, with production up 4.9% year-on-year and sales down 3.3%. The overall production and sales rate was 76% [6] - The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.71%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points year-on-year and 4.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The average price difference for polyester long filament POY was 1,330 yuan/ton, up 21.1% year-on-year and 8.4% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The financial forecast indicates a revenue of 94.68 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. The net profit is projected to increase significantly by 111.4% in 2025 [8][10]