RSPC(SZ:002493) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-30 06:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates a recovery in refining and polyester profitability, with both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter performance improvements [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 74.975 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.54% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.76%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 588 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 486.62% [6] - The report highlights a recovery in refining profitability, driven by rising oil prices and increased travel demand, with an average price difference for crude oil catalytic cracking estimated at 1,108 USD/ton, up 13.4% year-on-year and 11.7% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The polyester industry is seeing profits concentrated in the downstream filament segment, with the filament price difference recovering significantly [6] - The collaboration with Saudi Aramco is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects for the company [6] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 4.311 billion, 6.389 billion, and 8.437 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 19X, 13X, and 10X respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 345.713 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.311 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 495% [5] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 11.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9% [5]