周大生（002867）：业绩短期承压，高分红回馈股东

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.89 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion RMB, down 23.25% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1][4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.5 RMB per 10 shares (including tax), resulting in an annual dividend of 0.95 RMB per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 7% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.67 billion RMB, a significant decline of 47.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 250 million RMB, down 26.1% year-on-year [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit due to rising gold prices affecting franchisee store closures [1][3] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a gross margin of 26.2%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices [3] Brand Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand matrix to adapt to current consumer trends and capture market share [2] - The main brand "Zhou Dasheng" is improving store profitability through adjustments in store image and product structure [2] Revenue Channels - Franchise business revenue decreased by 58.6% year-on-year, accounting for 59.3% of total revenue [3] - Offline self-operated and e-commerce channel revenues were 527 million RMB and 534 million RMB, down 16.3% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 12% and 11% to 1.10 billion RMB and 1.23 billion RMB, respectively [4] - The target price is set at 17.20 RMB, based on a 17 times PE ratio for 2025 [4][8]