TKGF(SH:601233) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-30 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year and down 23.11% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 611 million yuan, up 5.36% year-on-year and up 213.00% quarter-on-quarter. The performance is in line with expectations, and the company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.541 billion, 3.648 billion, and 4.274 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06, 1.52, and 1.78 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 10.1, 7.0, and 6.0 times respectively. The outlook remains positive due to steady demand growth and an optimized supply structure, which is expected to lead to a recovery in long filament profitability [5][6][8] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company produced and sold 3.29 million and 2.50 million tons of long filaments, respectively, with production up 4.9% year-on-year and sales down 3.3%. The overall production and sales rate was 76%. The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.71%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points year-on-year and 4.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The average price difference for polyester long filament POY in Q1 2025 was 1,330 yuan/ton, up 21.1% year-on-year and 8.4% quarter-on-quarter [6][8][10] Financial Forecast - The financial forecast for Tongkun Co., Ltd. includes projected revenues of 94.684 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.541 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 111.4%. The gross margin is projected to be 7.1% in 2025, increasing to 8.7% by 2027 [8][10][11]