CHOW TAI SENG Jewellery Company Limited(SZ:002867) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-04-30 06:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a revenue decline of 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit drop of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on product and channel optimization to improve performance amidst a challenging consumer environment [5][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan, while the gross margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 20.8% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue fell by 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, but gross margin increased significantly by 10.6 percentage points to 26.2% due to rising gold prices and product/channel structure optimization [2] Channel Performance - Self-operated Offline: Revenue grew by 7.8% to 17.44 billion yuan in 2024, with a net increase of 22 self-operated stores to 353 [3] - Self-operated Online: Revenue increased by 11.42% to 27.95 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on enhancing e-commerce capabilities [4] - Franchise Business: Revenue declined by 23.26% to 91.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant drop in performance expected to continue into 2025 [5] Product Performance - Revenue from gold jewelry and embedded jewelry decreased by 16.62% and 17.36% respectively in 2024, with a focus on optimizing product structure in 2025 [10] - The company plans to launch new products to stimulate demand in the gold category and enhance development in silver and jade products [10] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit growth of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan [11] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 10.43 billion yuan, 11.50 billion yuan, and 12.78 billion yuan respectively, with a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025 [11]