Roborock(SH:688169) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-30 06:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][5][12] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 86.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, achieving a total revenue of 34.3 billion yuan. However, the net profit decreased by 32.9% to 2.7 billion yuan [4][5] - The company is expected to see a bottoming out of its net profit margin due to the launch of new products and the scale effect of new categories [4][5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 2.0 billion, 2.7 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan respectively [4][5] Revenue Growth - Domestic sales are expected to double, driven by national subsidies and new product categories. Online sales of the company's sweeping and washing machines increased by 90% and 349% year-on-year respectively in Q1 2025 [4][5] - The market share of washing machines reached 13.8%, with a significant increase in the share of the A30 Pro Combo model [4][5] - International sales also saw rapid growth, with Europe expected to grow by approximately 100% and North America by about 50% [4][5] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 45.5%, down 11.0 percentage points, attributed to the increase in domestic washing machine revenue and growth in European offline channels [5][6] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 7.8%, down 13.9 percentage points, indicating a strategic decision to compress profit margins in exchange for market share [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 86.54 billion yuan in 2023 to 317.89 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.5%, 38.0%, 55.2%, 32.8%, and 29.1% respectively [6][8] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.84 yuan, 14.66 yuan, and 19.03 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.1, 12.7, and 9.7 [6][8]