KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2025-04-30 06:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [1][7]. Core Views - The company successfully achieved a strong start in Q1 2025, with double-digit growth in revenue and net profit, laying a solid foundation for its operational goals for the year [4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% year-on-year [4]. - The revenue growth of the company's series liquor exceeded that of its flagship Maotai liquor, with series liquor revenue increasing by 18.30% year-on-year [4]. - The company's net profit margin improved year-on-year, reaching 54.89%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, with Maotai liquor revenue at 43.557 billion yuan (up 9.70%) and series liquor revenue at 7.022 billion yuan (up 18.30%) [4]. - The wholesale channel generated 27.360 billion yuan in revenue (up 3.94%), while the direct sales channel saw revenue of 23.220 billion yuan (up 20.19%) [4]. - The company's gross margin was 91.97%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased revenue share from series liquor [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 189.817 billion yuan for 2025, with net profit expected to reach 97.136 billion yuan [5]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 74.63 yuan for 2025 and 81.57 yuan for 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 21 times and 19 times [4][5].