周大生：业绩短期承压，高分红回馈股东-20250430

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.20 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 13.89 billion for 2024, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.01 billion, down 23.25% year-on-year, slightly below expectations due to rising gold prices affecting franchisee store closures [1][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.65 per share (before tax), maintaining a high dividend policy with an annual yield of approximately 7% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue drop of 47.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 250 million, down 26.1% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved to 26.2%, up 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a revenue of RMB 13.89 billion and a net profit of RMB 1.01 billion [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was RMB 2.67 billion, a 47.3% decrease year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 250 million, a 26.1% decrease year-on-year [1][3]. Brand Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand matrix to adapt to current consumer trends and capture market share, with four main brands: "Zhou Dasheng," "Zhou Dasheng Classic," "Zhou Dasheng National Treasure," and "Zhuanzhuge" [2]. - The main brand is improving store image and product structure to enhance profitability, while the other brands target specific market segments [2]. Revenue Channels - The franchise business saw a revenue decline of 58.6% in Q1 2025, accounting for 59.3% of total revenue, primarily due to increased store closures [3]. - Offline self-operated and e-commerce channels generated revenues of RMB 527 million and RMB 534 million, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 16.3% and 6.7% [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, lowering net profit estimates by 12% and 11% to RMB 1.10 billion and RMB 1.23 billion, respectively [4]. - The target price is set at RMB 17.20, based on a 17x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting an improvement in industry valuation due to marginal demand recovery [4].