周大生：2024、2025Q1业绩承压，关注公司产品以及渠道优化进度-20250430

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a revenue decline of 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan in 2024. The gross margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 20.8% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant revenue drop of 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, although the gross margin increased by 10.6 percentage points to 26.2% due to rising gold prices and product/channel optimization [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product and channel structure to enhance performance in 2025, with expected revenue growth of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan and net profit growth of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan [11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan. The dividend payout was 0.95 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.32% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue fell by 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 26.1% to 2.5 billion yuan [2] Channel Performance - Self-operated Offline: Revenue grew by 7.8% to 17.44 billion yuan in 2024, with 353 self-operated stores, but Q1 2025 revenue declined by 16.29% to 5.27 billion yuan [3] - Self-operated Online: Revenue increased by 11.42% to 27.95 billion yuan in 2024, but saw a decline of 6.71% to 5.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [4] - Franchise Business: Revenue dropped by 23.26% to 91.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a further decline of 58.63% to 15.84 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [5] Product Performance - Revenue from gold jewelry and embedded jewelry decreased by 16.62% and 17.36% respectively in 2024, while gross margins were affected by rising gold prices [10] - The company plans to launch new products in 2025 to stimulate demand, focusing on both gold and non-gold categories [10] Financial Projections - The company expects a revenue increase of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 14 times [11][12]