HEILAN HOME(SH:600398) HTSC·2025-04-30 07:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 10.15 [7][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 20.96 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and a net profit of RMB 2.16 billion, down 26.9% year-on-year, which is in line with previous expectations [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of RMB 6.19 billion, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 0.94 billion, up 5.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in growth [1] - The company is focusing on solidifying its core apparel business while expanding into the sports sector and accelerating globalization, particularly through the new JD Outlet business model [1][2] Revenue and Growth - The main brand, group buying, and other brands (including FCC and JD Outlet) generated revenues of RMB 15.27 billion, RMB 2.22 billion, and RMB 2.67 billion respectively, with growth rates of -7.2%, -2.5%, and +32.4% [2] - Offline revenue for 2024 was RMB 15.74 billion with a total of 7,178 stores, while online revenue increased by 35.6% to RMB 4.42 billion, reflecting a robust multi-channel marketing strategy [2] Profitability and Costs - The gross profit margin remained stable at 44.5% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 10.4% due to increased selling and management expenses [3] - Selling expense ratio increased by 2.9 percentage points to 23.1%, primarily due to the rise in direct store numbers and advertising costs [3] Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory turnover days increased by 47 days to 330 days, mainly due to the consolidation of the FCC business and increased winter apparel inventory [4] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 42.9% year-on-year to RMB 6.79 billion, potentially due to increased dividend payouts and the impact of the FCC business [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 is RMB 2.78 billion and RMB 3.11 billion respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of RMB 3.39 billion [5] - The target price is based on a 2025E PE of 17.5x, with a comparison to the industry average PE of 17.0x [5]