隆平高科：玉米业务短期承压，水稻业务韧性凸显-20250430

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have declined in Q1 2025, primarily due to the oversupply in the corn seed market, inventory reduction pressures, accelerated variety updates, and intensified market competition [2][3] - The corn seed business has significantly impacted overall performance, with a revenue drop of 16.74% year-on-year in 2024, leading to a net profit loss [3] - In contrast, the rice business has shown resilience, with a projected revenue growth of approximately 13% in 2024, reaching over 2 billion yuan, and a net profit of 340 million yuan [3] - The company is implementing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, resulting in a net cash flow increase of 13.64% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on its core business and optimizing its financial structure, including a planned equity transfer to enhance liquidity [4] - The company maintains a first-mover advantage in genetically modified crops and is exploring agricultural digitization for long-term growth [5] - Despite short-term challenges in the corn seed market and Brazilian operations, the strong performance of the rice business and ongoing cost management initiatives support a positive outlook [6] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 1.409 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 32.03%, and a net profit of -2.09 million yuan, a decline of 102.72% [2] - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 10.311 billion yuan, 11.892 billion yuan, and 12.890 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 364 million yuan, 497 million yuan, and 640 million yuan [6][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.28 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.49 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][9] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a recovery trajectory with a projected net profit growth rate of 219.5% in 2025 [9]