Guangzhou Restaurant(SH:603043) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-30 07:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.9% to 51 million yuan [3][4] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 570 million, 640 million, and 700 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.00, 1.12, and 1.22 yuan [3][4] - The dual drivers of food and beverage businesses are expected to support stable growth in the company's performance, leading to the maintained "Outperform" rating [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the food business generated revenue of 600 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the restaurant business revenue reached 420 million yuan, up 10.1% year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 25.4%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand and increased competition [5] - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 4.9%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.67 billion, 6.23 billion, and 6.80 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.7%, 9.8%, and 9.3% [6][8] - The expected net profits for the same years are 567 million, 637 million, and 695 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.7%, 12.4%, and 9.2% [6][8] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 15.6, 13.9, and 12.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to decline from 2.0 in 2025 to 1.6 in 2027 [6][8]