YINGJIA DISTILLERY(SH:603198) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-30 07:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year increase [1][5]. - The company is focusing on the growth of its cave-aged series, which is anticipated to continue its double-digit growth despite a general slowdown in the mid-to-low-end liquor market [2][4]. - The company is actively managing its channel pressures and ensuring healthy inventory levels, which is expected to enhance its market position in the future [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 73.44 billion yuan, with a net profit margin improvement to 35.3%, up by 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to decline by 5.0% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 is projected to see a 12.3% decrease in revenue [1][3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve due to the increasing share of the cave-aged series in its product mix [3][4]. Product and Market Performance - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is expected to reach 5.713 billion yuan in 2024, showing a 13.8% increase, while ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.6% [2][5]. - The company’s performance in the domestic market is stronger than in the external market, with domestic revenue expected to grow by 12.8% compared to a mere 1.3% growth in external markets [2][3]. - The cave-aged series is expected to maintain its growth momentum, with specific products like Cave 9 and Cave 6 showing faster growth rates [2][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 7.4 billion yuan, 7.86 billion yuan, and 8.449 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 6.2%, and 7.5% [5][6]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.624 billion yuan, 2.840 billion yuan, and 3.218 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.3%, 7.8%, and 9.8% [5][6]. - The company’s cash dividend rate for 2024 is projected at 46.4%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.1% for 2025 [5][6].