山西汾酒（600809）：2024年报及2025年一季报点评：经营良性，分红提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a target price of 285 CNY, while the current price is 202.99 CNY [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion CNY, up 17.3% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 4.65 billion CNY, down 10.2%, and the net profit was 0.89 billion CNY, down 11.3%. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion CNY, a 7.7% increase, with a net profit of 6.65 billion CNY, up 6.2% [1][3][7]. Financial Summary - 2024 Financial Performance: Total revenue was 36,011 million CNY with a net profit of 12,243 million CNY. The gross margin improved to 76.2% and the net margin was 34.0% [3][8]. - 2025 Financial Projections: Expected revenue growth of 8.7% to 39,146 million CNY and net profit growth of 7.6% to 13,169 million CNY. EPS is projected to be 10.79 CNY [3][11]. - Key Financial Ratios: The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 20 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, while the P/B ratio is expected to decline from 7.1 to 4.3 over the same period [3][11]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on maintaining a healthy channel inventory and stable pricing, with a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio from 51% to 60%, enhancing its attractiveness to long-term investors [7][8]. - The growth strategy includes strengthening brand collaboration and expanding the market presence of secondary brands like Zhuyeqing and Xinghuacun, while Fenjiu remains the primary growth driver [7][8]. Market Position - The company has shown resilience in its operational performance, with balanced revenue growth from both domestic and international markets, and a stable cash flow situation with contract liabilities at 5.82 billion CNY [1][7].