TZE(SZ:002129) Dongxing Securities·2025-04-30 07:42Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating of TCL Zhonghuan to "Recommended" due to ongoing pressure on performance in 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced significant revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 28.42 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 51.95%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 9.82 billion, a decrease of 387.42% [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.10 billion, down 38.58% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.91 billion, a decrease of 116.67% [1]. - Despite a 10.5% year-on-year increase in silicon wafer shipments to approximately 125.8 GW, the company faced gross margin losses due to price competition and a mismatch in supply and demand [1][2]. - The company plans to enhance its product structure by upgrading its solar module capacity to Topcon and BC modules, aiming to improve competitiveness and meet market demand [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The financial forecast for TCL Zhonghuan indicates expected net profits of -2.89 billion, 0.22 billion, and 1.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.72, 0.05, and 0.33 [3][4]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are -51.95% in 2024, followed by 18.57% in 2025, 16.57% in 2026, and 19.99% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to recover slightly, with projections of -9.08% in 2024, 4.06% in 2025, and 12.66% in 2026 [4].