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潮宏基(002345):产品力优势显著,1Q25业绩逆势亮眼增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to continue generating alpha returns [5]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 481 million, 579 million, and 669 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 148%, 20%, and 15.5% respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 14 [5]. - The company has a significant product strength advantage and is expected to maintain its competitive edge in the market [5]. - The report highlights that the company's traditional gold products are leading growth, while the women's bag business is under pressure [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 5,900 million RMB in 2023, 6,518 million RMB in 2024 (up 10.48% year-on-year), and further growth to 7,968 million RMB in 2025 [10]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 194 million RMB, down 41.91% year-on-year, but excluding goodwill impairment, the net profit would be 350 million RMB, a decrease of 5.11% [11]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to be 0.375 RMB in 2023, 0.218 RMB in 2024, and increasing to 0.541 RMB in 2025 [10]. - The company has shown a strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, with revenue of 22.52 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 25.36%, and a net profit of 1.89 million RMB, up 44.38% year-on-year [11]. Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its franchise network, with a net increase of 129 stores in 2024, bringing the total to 1,505 stores, of which 1,268 are franchise stores [11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product strength and brand power, targeting the younger demographic with differentiated product categories [11]. - The company is also making strides in global strategic expansion, having opened stores in Malaysia and Thailand in 2024 [11].