城投控股（600649）：结算规模显著提升，Q1实现盈利

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 6.34 [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching RMB 2.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 455.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 0.24 billion, marking a turnaround from losses, with an EPS of RMB 0.01 [1]. - The company is expected to maintain high revenue growth throughout the year, supported by a robust backlog of contracts amounting to RMB 11.9 billion and a historical high sales figure of RMB 17.7 billion last year [2]. - The company has a substantial unsold inventory valued at over RMB 70 billion, primarily located in Shanghai, which is anticipated to drive future sales and improve return on equity (ROE) [3]. - The rental business is expanding, with a rental area of approximately 509,300 square meters and rental income contributing 3.2% to total revenue [4]. - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be RMB 0.23, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.41 respectively, with a PB ratio of 0.75 times and a target price of RMB 6.34 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of RMB 2.34 billion, a 455.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 0.24 billion, reversing previous losses [1]. - The gross margin improved to 20.7%, up 6.2 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a recovery in profitability [2]. Sales and Inventory - The company signed sales contracts worth approximately RMB 1.89 billion in Q1 2025, a decrease of 62% year-on-year due to the lack of new project launches [3]. - The total unsold inventory is estimated at over RMB 70 billion, with 99% located in Shanghai, providing a strong foundation for future sales [3]. Rental Business - The rental segment has expanded, with a total rental area of 509,300 square meters and a rental income of RMB 0.75 billion, representing 3.2% of total revenue [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains EPS forecasts of RMB 0.23, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.41 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price set at RMB 6.34 [5].