东方雨虹（002271）：竞争扰动毛利率，费用管控趋严

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.49 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.955 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.71% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.32%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 192 million RMB, down 44.68% year-on-year but up 116.45% quarter-on-quarter. The overall project resumption after the Spring Festival has been slow, limiting short-cycle demand for the company's products, but the low base from last year and the gradual reduction of impairment exposure provide operational resilience [1][2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.73%, down 5.95 percentage points year-on-year but up 9.30 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The industry is experiencing ongoing price competition, which has pressured product prices. However, the cost side remains relatively stable, with the average price of waterproof material asphalt at 3,775 RMB per ton, down 1.7% year-on-year and up 1.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's accounts receivable net value was 8.371 billion RMB, down 22.4% year-on-year but up 14.0% quarter-on-quarter. The increase in accounts receivable is attributed to credit issued to distributors, indicating a tightening of credit policies. The operating net cash flow was -813 million RMB, an improvement of 1.076 billion RMB year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 92.9% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects EPS for 2025 to be 0.69 RMB, with projections of 1.03 RMB for 2026 and 1.24 RMB for 2027. The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 25.7 times, but due to slow implementation of new real estate policies and significant pressure on asset disposal, the company is assigned a PE of 21 times for 2025, leading to a target price of 14.49 RMB [5][6]. Market Conditions - The real estate market is showing marginal improvement, with new home transaction volumes in key cities increasing by 7.2% week-on-week but down 19.5% year-on-year. The second-hand housing market is performing better, with a year-to-date increase of 15.0%, which may support demand for the company's products [4][5].