BRIGHT DAIRY(SH:600597) HTSC·2025-04-30 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 9.00, up from the previous target of RMB 8.41 [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see improvements in revenue and profit margins as it continues to implement its "Fresh Strategy" and expand its low-temperature milk distribution nationwide [1][4]. - The company faced challenges in 2024, with a decline in revenue and net profit, but there are signs of recovery in early 2025 [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 24.28 billion, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 720 million, down 25.4% [1][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a slight revenue increase of 0.8% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 6.0% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was RMB 6.37 billion, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 18.2% [1][6]. Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from liquid milk, other dairy products, and livestock was RMB 14.17 billion, RMB 7.79 billion, and RMB 1.02 billion, respectively, with liquid milk revenue declining by 9.5% [2]. - The Shanghai region showed stable performance, while overseas revenue continued to expand [2]. Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 19.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 3.0% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased to 18.7%, but the net profit margin improved slightly to 2.2% [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in consumer demand and expects to reduce losses from culling cows in 2025 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised to RMB 0.45 and RMB 0.48, respectively [4].