YUNDA Corp.(SZ:002120) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-30 07:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a rapid profit growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 48.543 billion yuan (+7.9%) and a non-net profit of 1.64 billion yuan (+18.3%) for the year [1][9]. - The company has experienced a recovery in business volume growth, with a market share stabilizing despite significant year-on-year declines in single-package prices due to intense industry competition [2][9]. - The company has seen a rebound in capacity utilization and a significant decrease in single-package costs, although the first quarter's profitability per package has declined due to increased competition [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The non-net profit is expected to be 1.64 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.3% increase [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show a revenue of 12.19 billion yuan (+9.3%) but a decline in non-net profit to 308 million yuan (-19.9%) [1][9]. Market Position - The company has adopted a relatively aggressive pricing strategy, leading to a 12.3% decrease in single-package express delivery prices for 2024. The prices for the fourth quarter and the first quarter were approximately 2.02 yuan and 1.98 yuan, respectively [2][9]. - The business volume growth for 2024 is expected to be 26.1%, with the fourth quarter and first quarter showing year-on-year increases of 22.4% and 22.9%, respectively [2][9]. Cost and Profitability - The company's core operating costs have decreased significantly, with the single-package core operating cost (transit + transportation) at 0.68 yuan, down 21.9% year-on-year. The first quarter's single-package operating cost further optimized to 0.62 yuan, a decrease of 18.4% [3][17]. - The single-package non-net profit for the fourth quarter was stable at 0.07 yuan, but it dropped to 0.05 yuan in the first quarter of 2025 due to intensified price competition [3][17]. Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 2.0 billion yuan, 2.33 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 16.2%, and 11.5%, respectively [4][19]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 10X and 9X for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][19].