SA(SH:601021) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-30 08:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Spring Airlines [2] Core Views - Spring Airlines reported a total operating revenue of 20 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.273 billion yuan, up 0.69% year-on-year [9] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 5.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.88%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.39% to 677 million yuan, which was in line with expectations [9] - The company’s operational data shows significant growth in capacity and volume, with overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increasing by 16.1% year-on-year in 2024 and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) up by 18.8% year-on-year [9] - The fleet size is projected to grow, with plans to add 5, 12, and 14 aircraft in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, leading to a fleet growth rate of 3.9%, 9%, and 9.6% [9] - The report highlights a commitment to shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 8.20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 798 million yuan, which is 38.03% of the net profit [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total operating revenue forecast for 2025 is 21.297 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.5% [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 2.688 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.3% increase year-on-year [8] - The report adjusts the domestic passenger kilometer yield growth assumption to -1% for 2025, leading to revised profit forecasts of 2.688 billion yuan for 2025 and 3.419 billion yuan for 2026 [9] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19x, 15x, and 13x respectively, indicating that the valuation remains below historical averages [9]