King's Luck(SH:603369) Soochow Securities·2025-04-30 08:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2024 and a pragmatic approach in 2025, with total revenue projected to reach 115.46 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, and a net profit of 34.12 billion yuan, up 8.80% year-on-year [7] - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, maintaining a balance between profit growth and operational quality [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue and net profit for 2024 are forecasted at 115.46 billion yuan and 34.12 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 14.31% and 8.80% [7] - For Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to be 50.99 billion yuan, a 9.17% increase year-on-year, and net profit is projected at 16.44 billion yuan, up 7.27% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to be 74.75% in 2024, with a slight decline in net profit margin to 29.55% [7][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.68 based on the current market price [1][8] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from the Special A+ and Special A product categories is expected to grow by 15.2% and 16.6% respectively, with the V6 product line anticipated to lead in growth [7] - Revenue from domestic and international markets is projected to increase by 13.3% and 27.4% respectively, with significant growth in regions such as Anhui and Shandong [7] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The company’s net profit margin is expected to decrease by 1.50 percentage points to 29.55% in 2024, attributed to increased discounts and a higher proportion of mid-tier products [7] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to decline to 74.75% in 2024, with fluctuations in sales expense ratios also noted [7]