潮宏基：产品力优势显著，1Q25业绩逆势亮眼增长-20250430

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to continue generating alpha returns [5]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 481 million, 579 million, and 669 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 148%, 20%, and 15.5% respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 14 [5]. - The company has a strong product capability advantage and is expected to enhance its brand power through cultural and fashionable expressions, appealing to younger demographics [11]. - The company is actively expanding its franchise network, with a net increase of 129 stores in 2024, including 158 new franchise stores, indicating robust growth in franchise performance [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 5,900 million RMB in 2023 to 10,697 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.87% [10]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.94 billion RMB, down 41.91% year-on-year, but excluding goodwill impairment, the adjusted net profit is 3.5 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 5.11% [11]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.375 RMB in 2023 to 0.753 RMB in 2027 [10]. Business Segmentation - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by business segment shows traditional gold products leading growth, while the women's bag segment remains under pressure [11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings with differentiated categories such as "intangible cultural heritage," "beading," and "popular IP," which are well-received by the younger audience [11]. Market Positioning - The company has established a global strategic layout, opening stores in Malaysia and Thailand in 2024, indicating its commitment to international expansion [11]. - The franchise model is being strengthened with increased support and collaboration for franchisees, which is expected to drive further growth [11].