BEAR APPLIANCE(SZ:002959) Guotou Securities·2025-04-30 08:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 54.63 CNY for the next 6 months [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.32 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 130 million CNY, down 14.0% year-over-year. The outlook remains positive as the company continues to expand its product categories and overseas markets, which are expected to drive revenue growth [1][2]. - The demand for kitchen small appliances has been boosted by the domestic appliance replacement policy, with online sales increasing by 22% year-over-year in Q1. Key product categories such as coffee machines, soybean milk machines, and blenders have seen rapid sales growth [1][2]. - The company is enhancing its overseas product development and marketing capabilities, actively expanding its international channels, which is expected to contribute to growth. Additionally, the consolidation of Roman Smart in July 2024 is anticipated to provide incremental revenue [1]. Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross profit margin increased by 0.9 percentage points year-over-year, but the net profit margin decreased by 2.8 percentage points due to increased R&D and management expenses, as well as a reduction in tax benefits [2]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 increased by 170 million CNY year-over-year, primarily due to revenue growth, with cash received from sales increasing by 200 million CNY [2]. - The company is positioned as a leading online small appliance company, capturing significant market share in the long-tail small appliance market. It is actively moving towards product refinement and enhancing brand strength, with expectations of improved profitability as consumer demand in the small appliance sector recovers [2][4]. Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.95 CNY, 2.14 CNY, and 2.37 CNY, respectively. The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 28 times [2][9]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 52.3 billion CNY in 2025 to 60.7 billion CNY in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from 3.1 billion CNY to 3.7 billion CNY over the same period [9][14].