Binjiang Group(SZ:002244) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-30 08:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 11.4 yuan, based on a projected 12 times PE for 2025 [4][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the "Good House" era, with profitability gradually recovering. In 2024, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 69.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.66% [2][4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024: Revenue of 69.152 billion yuan, net profit of 2.546 billion yuan - 2025: Revenue of 72.550 billion yuan, net profit of 2.987 billion yuan - 2026: Revenue of 70.279 billion yuan, net profit of 3.281 billion yuan - 2027: Revenue of 62.982 billion yuan, net profit of 3.331 billion yuan [2][9]. - Growth Rates: - Revenue growth rates: -1.8% (2024), 4.9% (2025), -3.1% (2026), -10.4% (2027) - Net profit growth rates: 0.7% (2024), 17.3% (2025), 9.9% (2026), 1.5% (2027) [2][9]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: 0.82 yuan - 2025: 0.96 yuan - 2026: 1.05 yuan - 2027: 1.07 yuan [2][9]. - Valuation Ratios: - PE ratio: 12 (2024), 10 (2025), 10 (2026), 9 (2027) - PB ratio: 1.1 (2024), 1.1 (2025), 1.0 (2026), 0.9 (2027) [2][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong market presence in Hangzhou, with 69% of its sales coming from this region. It has been the sales champion in Hangzhou for seven consecutive years, indicating significant scale advantages [8][9]. - In 2024, the company plans to focus its investments primarily in Hangzhou, with an investment intensity of approximately 40%. The company has acquired 23 new land reserve projects, with only one located outside Hangzhou [8][9]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of around 100 billion yuan in 2024, despite a projected 27% decline in sales amount [8][9]. - The report highlights the company's strong cost control capabilities and operational efficiency, which are expected to support a gradual recovery in gross margins as older projects are completed [8][9].