Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-30 09:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in frozen baking and continued growth in cream products. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 321 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 19.6% [4][5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached 1.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 88 million yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The revenue from the cream business grew significantly, with UHT high-end cream sales exceeding 500 million yuan. The frozen baking segment saw a 12% increase in revenue in Q1 2025, driven by the expansion of KA stores and new product launches [5][6] - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 2.56 percentage points year-on-year due to rising raw material costs, particularly palm oil. However, the overall expense ratio has decreased, indicating effective cost control [6][7] Business Segment Analysis - In 2024, the frozen baking revenue declined by 3.5%, while cream, fruit products, and sauces saw increases of 61.8%, -11.3%, and -3.6% respectively. The cream segment's growth was a key contributor to the overall revenue increase [5][6] - The company is focusing on product efficiency by reducing SKU counts and enhancing procurement strategies to lower costs. The long-term outlook for frozen baking is positive, with expectations of gradual market penetration [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.89 yuan, 2.40 yuan, and 2.85 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.8, 18.0, and 15.1 [4][9] - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from 4.36 billion yuan in 2025 to 5.31 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.3% [9][11]