新天然气（603393）：利润逆势增长，主业盈利能力提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 3.77 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.72%, despite a revenue decline of 5.95% to 10.64 billion yuan due to falling gas prices [1] - The average LNG price in Q1 2025 was 3.24 yuan per cubic meter, down 3.76% year-on-year, which was the main reason for the revenue decline; however, the company's cost reduction and efficiency improvements led to a significant increase in gross margin to 42.15%, up 4.44 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to see production growth of 20% to 30% in 2025, driven by ongoing production efforts in the PanZhuang and MaBi blocks [3] - The natural gas market remains relatively stable, with a national consumption increase of 1.8% in Q1 2025, despite a lower growth rate compared to 2024 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 14.80 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) of 3.49 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8 [4] - The forecasted financial metrics for 2025 include total revenue of 4.397 billion yuan, a growth rate of 16.4%, and a net profit growth rate of 24.9% [5][11] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain strong, with projections indicating a gross margin of 48.66% in 2025 [12]