天润乳业（600419）：需求延续平淡，减值扰动盈利

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419) [2][8] Core Views - The demand remains weak, impacting profitability due to impairment losses. In Q1 2025, total revenue was CNY 625 million, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -CNY 73 million compared to CNY 5 million in the same period last year [2][8] - The company is actively adjusting to pressures, with expectations for gradual improvement in operations throughout the year. The report anticipates that the reduction in cattle and the introduction of new products will help stabilize revenue and improve profitability [2][8] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 2,804 million in 2024 to CNY 3,327 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 5.2%, 6.4%, and 6.0% respectively [4] - Net profit is expected to recover from CNY 44 million in 2024 to CNY 204 million in 2027, with significant growth rates of -69.3%, 94.2%, 100.6%, and 20.0% [4] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.14 in 2024 to CNY 0.64 in 2027, reflecting the company's recovery strategy [4] - Valuation Ratios: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [4] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the sales revenue from various product lines showed a decline, with revenue from ambient products at CNY 347 million, down 4.37%, and low-temperature products at CNY 239 million, down 0.64% [8] - The company experienced a 12.37% increase in dairy product sales volume year-on-year, attributed to promotional activities in the Xinjiang region [8] Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on reducing cattle numbers and introducing new products to adapt to market pressures. New product launches include passion fruit milk beer and baked milk skin, aimed at diversifying revenue streams [8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the raw milk price cycle and the potential impact of consumer stimulus policies on future performance [8]