MANGO(SZ:300413) Guohai Securities·2025-04-30 09:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved breakthroughs in its series, with both membership revenue and the number of members reaching new highs [2] - The company reported a revenue of 14.08 billion yuan for 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 3.75%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.364 billion yuan, down 61.63% year-over-year [5][6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 12.76%, and a net profit of 379 million yuan, down 19.80% year-over-year [6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the last year shows a decline of 19.0% over 1 month and 3 months, and a decrease of 3.9% over 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [4] - As of April 29, 2025, the current stock price is 22.51 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 42.11 billion yuan [4] Membership and Revenue Growth - By the end of 2024, the company's membership reached 73.31 million, an increase of 10.2% year-over-year, with membership revenue of 5.148 billion yuan, up 19.3% year-over-year [8] - Membership revenue accounted for over 50% of the internet video business revenue, indicating its importance for future performance [8] Advertising and Operational Performance - The advertising business generated 3.438 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a decrease of 2.66% year-over-year, but the decline is narrowing [9] - The company's operator business revenue was 1.593 billion yuan, with a year-over-year decline of 46.0% in the first half and 38.82% in the second half of 2024 [9] Content Production and Strategy - In 2024, the company launched 27 key dramas, with significant sponsorships, and has over 100 dramas in reserve [10] - The company is focusing on micro-short dramas, having launched 340 such productions in 2024 [11] E-commerce and International Expansion - The content e-commerce business generated 2.6 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, with a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of 16.1 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 125% over four years [12] - The international app achieved a revenue of 141 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 127.42% [12] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 14.945 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.850 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 36% [14] - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22, 20, and 19 respectively [14]