KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-30 09:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][10][18] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, showcasing resilience amid demand contraction [1] - The growth in revenue is attributed to a decrease in tax rates, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth [1][4] - The company expects to achieve a 9% revenue growth target for the full year 2025, with a focus on expanding consumer reach and innovative consumption scenarios [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 43.557 billion yuan, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, while series liquor revenue reached 7.022 billion yuan, growing 18.3% year-on-year [2] - Direct sales channel revenue increased by 20.2% year-on-year, accounting for 45.9% of total revenue, driven by enhanced customer acquisition capabilities [2][3] - The overall net profit margin improved by 0.42 percentage points to 52.2% in Q1 2025, despite a slight decline in gross margin [3] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts total revenue of 190.754 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, and net profit of 94.268 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.3% increase [5][4] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 75.04 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 for 2025 [5][10] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 36.7% for 2025, indicating robust profitability [5]