老板电器（002508）：受益以旧换新政策，市场优势重回龙头

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company benefits from the old-for-new policy, regaining market advantages as a leading player in the kitchen appliance sector [2]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.21 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.10% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 8.97% to 1.58 billion yuan [1]. - The company has a strong brand and channel advantages, with significant growth potential in categories like dishwashers and digital kitchen appliances [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.78%, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, up 4.28% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.20% year-on-year, with a net profit of 340 million yuan, down 14.66% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 49.7%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, but showed improvement in the second half of the year [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 470 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 59.9% for 2024 [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.68 billion yuan, 1.89 billion yuan, and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with a downward adjustment for 2025 due to Q1 performance [4]. - The company’s current market capitalization corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 11.0x for 2025, 9.8x for 2026, and 8.8x for 2027 [4]. Market and Channel Analysis - The company’s sales through distribution channels increased by 21% year-on-year in 2024, while direct sales and engineering channels saw declines [2]. - The demand for kitchen appliances improved significantly following the implementation of the old-for-new policy, particularly in the months of August and September [2].