LZLJ(SZ:000568) EBSCN·2025-04-30 10:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [6] Core Views - Luzhou Laojiao's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 31.196 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.71% increase [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a total cash dividend amounting to 8.758 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of approximately 65% [1] - The company aims for a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 75% in 2026, with a minimum annual cash dividend of 8.5 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Growth - In 2024, the revenue growth rate has slowed down, with mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor revenues at 27.585 billion yuan and 3.467 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 2.77% and 7.15% [2] - For Q1 2025, total revenue is 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, aligning with market expectations [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 is 87.54% and 86.51% respectively, with a slight decline compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 43.19%, reflecting a decrease of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 13.857 billion yuan and 14.989 billion yuan, representing a 15% and 18% reduction from previous estimates [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 9.41 yuan, 10.18 yuan, and 11.00 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [4]