AVICHM(600765)2025-04-30 10:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 21.15% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 2.31 billion yuan and a net profit of 200 million yuan, down 38.97% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to industry cyclicality and a slowdown in product delivery schedules [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with a total of 23.1 billion yuan in hand orders, which is expected to support its annual operational goals. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 33.8%, an increase of 4.04 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is shifting its product focus towards high-value sectors, with a significant increase in associated procurement amounts for 2025, indicating strong overall demand [2]. - A share buyback plan of 200 million to 400 million yuan has been announced, reflecting confidence in the company's future development and long-term value [3]. - The company is actively expanding into new markets such as civil aviation, commercial engines, aerospace, and deep-sea sectors, which are expected to enhance its long-term profitability [3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.26 billion yuan, 1.48 billion yuan, and 1.75 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18.70x, 15.94x, and 13.50x [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 10.58 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.29 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15.15% [5]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to stabilize around 29% by 2027, with a net margin of approximately 11.45% [11].