CSCEC(SH:601668) Guotou Securities·2025-04-30 11:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 6.49 CNY over the next six months [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 555.34 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.01 billion CNY, which is a 0.6% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to enhanced project management, the implementation of key projects, and proactive customer resource expansion [2]. - The company is focusing on strategic emerging industries, achieving a revenue of 45.3 billion CNY in Q1 2025, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 34.2% [2]. - The company signed new contracts worth 1,270.2 billion CNY in Q1 2025, marking a 6.9% increase year-on-year, with a notable 40% increase in new contracts for infrastructure projects [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 555.34 billion CNY, with various segments showing different growth rates: construction revenue at 364.9 billion CNY (down 0.2%), infrastructure at 128.3 billion CNY (up 0.5%), real estate development at 53.7 billion CNY (up 15.5%), and surveying and design at 2.3 billion CNY (down 11.3%) [2]. - The company’s net profit for Q1 2025 was 15.01 billion CNY, with a slight decline in gross margin to 7.85% [3]. Cost and Cash Flow Management - The gross margin faced pressure, decreasing by 0.24 percentage points year-on-year, while the company effectively controlled its expense ratio at 3.65% [3]. - The operating cash flow showed improvement, with a net outflow of 95.85 billion CNY, which is a reduction of 0.743 billion CNY compared to the previous year [3]. Contract and Order Growth - The company’s new contract signing in Q1 2025 reached 1,270.2 billion CNY, with a 6.9% year-on-year increase, driven by a 40% increase in infrastructure contracts [4]. - The structure of the construction business is continuously optimizing, with significant growth in contracts for affordable housing and educational facilities [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2,285.57 billion CNY, 2,381.56 billion CNY, and 2,472.06 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 48.54 billion CNY, 50.88 billion CNY, and 53.01 billion CNY [7][8].