TECON(SZ:002100) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-30 11:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for TianKang Biological is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a steady decline in breeding costs and stable operations in animal health feed, with expectations to navigate through the cycle profitably [4][5] - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.176 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.72%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 605 million yuan, an increase of 144.38% [4] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 4.180 billion yuan, an increase of 10.68%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 148 million yuan, an increase of 174.02% [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and added a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 969 million yuan, 933 million yuan, and 1.611 billion yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Breeding and Cost Performance - In 2024, the company sold 3.0285 million pigs, an increase of 7.55%, with an average selling price of 15.66 yuan per kilogram [5] - The complete cost of breeding in 2024 was 14.73 yuan per kilogram, which is expected to decrease to below 13 yuan per kilogram by Q3 2025 [5] - The company aims to achieve a breeding target of 3.5 to 4 million pigs in 2025 [5] Feed and Animal Health Business - In 2024, the feed sales volume was 2.8283 million tons, a slight increase of 0.86%, with pig feed contributing significantly to the growth [6] - The animal health business generated revenue of 999 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 0.22%, with vaccine sales increasing by 18.44% [6] - The company expects feed sales to reach 2.9 million tons in 2025, primarily driven by pig feed [6] Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s total market capitalization is 8.519 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 6.24 yuan [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.71 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 1.18 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.8, 9.1, and 5.3 [4][7] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 51.40%, indicating a stable financial position with sufficient liquidity for expansion [6]