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中密控股(300470):经营稳健,国际业务快速发展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 14.40% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.567 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 13.21%, totaling 392 million yuan. This performance is considered stable despite a low downstream market sentiment [1][9]. - The international business is rapidly expanding, with a significant increase in revenue from the equipment manufacturing sector, which is projected to grow by 17.68% to 658 million yuan in 2024, driven by international market developments [2]. - The company has shown strong performance in the rubber and plastic sealing and special valve segments, with revenue growth of 26.79% and 37.28% respectively in 2024, indicating successful market expansion and product development [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a gross margin of 48.34% and a net margin of 25.10%, with slight declines in profitability due to increased contributions from lower-margin businesses [1]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 322 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.03% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the existing business segments, including petrochemical and coal chemical sectors, is expected to grow modestly, with specific increases of 1.82%, 6.64%, and 9.18% for different segments [2]. - The company’s international business is anticipated to grow by approximately 50%, contributing around 200 million yuan to the total revenue [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 419 million yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 18 times [4][5]. - The gross margin for the rubber and plastic sealing segment is expected to be 40.34%, while the special valve segment is projected to have a gross margin of 49.52% [3]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit is expected to reach 484 million yuan in 2026 and 558 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 15 and 13 times [4][5]. - The revenue growth rates for the years 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 12.4%, 13.3%, and 14.1% respectively [5].