Xingfa Chem(600141) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-30 12:16Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 7.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 311 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19% [6] - The decline in profitability is attributed to falling prices of key products such as diammonium phosphate and glyphosate, alongside an 80% increase in sulfur procurement costs [6] - The company is expected to benefit from potential changes in export policies for fertilizers, which could lead to a recovery in profitability [6] - The special chemicals segment continues to grow, with a 12% increase in sales volume in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in the company's transformation and upgrade efforts [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 29.364 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% [5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 1.823 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.65 yuan for 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12 [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 20% by 2025, up from 12.9% in Q1 2025 [5]