Yanghe(SZ:002304) Minsheng Securities·2025-04-30 12:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 68.60 CNY, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][11]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a phase of deceleration and inventory adjustment, with expectations for stabilization and improvement in the future [4]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 28.88 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.67 billion CNY, down 33.37% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on channel inventory clearance and maintaining strong relationships with distributors, while also investing in marketing and promotional activities to support long-term growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.36 billion CNY, a decline of 52.17% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.90 billion CNY [1]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 11.11 billion CNY, down 31.92% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.64 billion CNY, a decrease of 39.93% [1]. - The overall sales volume of liquor in 2024 was 139,100 tons, a decrease of 16.30%, while the average price per ton increased by 3.87% [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is adjusting its product pricing structure and has launched new products to fill market gaps, such as the Dream Blue Business Edition [2]. - The revenue from high-end liquor reached 24.32 billion CNY, down 14.79% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 3.93 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.49% [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.16%, a decrease of 2.09 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 23.11%, down 7.13 percentage points [3]. - The company increased its sales expense ratio to 19.10%, up 2.84 percentage points, reflecting higher promotional spending [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover with projected net profits of 5.86 billion CNY, 6.25 billion CNY, and 6.77 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.89 CNY, 4.15 CNY, and 4.49 CNY [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of shareholder returns, with a total cash dividend of 7 billion CNY in 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 6.8% as of April 30, 2025 [4].