甘源食品（002991）：品类有红利，渠道加速开拓

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 376 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 504 million yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.2% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that the company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to strategic adjustments, but long-term growth prospects remain positive due to investments in brand enhancement and overseas market expansion [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1.848 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.293 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 329 million yuan in 2023 to 514 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 13.8% [4]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 36.2% in 2023 to 33.6% in 2027, indicating a potential increase in cost pressures [4]. Product and Market Insights - The report identifies a significant growth opportunity in the flavored nut category, with key products such as green peas, sunflower seeds, and mixed nuts showing double-digit growth in 2024 [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of its snack retail channels and overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where consumer habits favor bean and flavored nut products [3]. - The company’s strategy to enhance its presence in the mass retail channel is anticipated to drive market share growth in lower-tier markets [3].