Sungrow Power Supply(SZ:300274) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-30 14:19Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][20]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with the energy storage business likely to continue its rapid growth [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 77.857 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.036 billion yuan, up 16.92% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in energy storage system shipments, with a 167% year-on-year growth in 2024 and a target of 40-50 GWh for 2025, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 40% [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2024: 77.857 billion yuan - 2025: 85.243 billion yuan (9.5% growth) - 2026: 96.689 billion yuan (13.4% growth) - 2027: 108.950 billion yuan (12.7% growth) [3][8] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2024: 11.036 billion yuan - 2025: 12.251 billion yuan (11.0% growth) - 2026: 13.770 billion yuan (12.4% growth) - 2027: 15.184 billion yuan (10.3% growth) [3][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: 5.32 yuan - 2025: 5.91 yuan - 2026: 6.64 yuan - 2027: 7.32 yuan [3][8] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 10 times, decreasing to 8 times by 2027 [3][8]. Business Segment Performance - The photovoltaic inverter business showed steady growth, with a global shipment of 147 GW in 2024, a 13% increase year-on-year, and 34 GW in Q1 2025, a 19% increase year-on-year [7]. - The energy storage business is expected to maintain high growth rates, with global new energy storage installations projected to reach 221.9 GWh in 2025, a 26.5% increase year-on-year [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's energy storage business will continue to grow rapidly, with a stable profit margin. The target price is set at 76.82 yuan, based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [7].